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2013 US Open Winner Trading Market

2013 us open winner market

2013 US Open Winner market.

Just came back, from holiday, in time to write a preview for the 2013 US Open tournament. I did continue to follow tennis during my vacation, however I haven’t traded. Instead I took the liberty of enjoying Rafa Nadal’s impressive summer hard court season! I can imagine that the question in everyone’s mind is, if he can keep it up and finish in style with his 2nd ever US Open triumph. There are a lot of factors though, that contribute on determining the 2013 Winner at Flushing Meadows and this is why I always try to leave the gambling part out of the equation as much as possible. Plus you don’t need to predict the winner in order to be a successful tennis trader!

In this article I present you the 2013 US Open Winner market. This sports exchange market offered by Betfair allows you to trade the odds of the favorites at winning the last Grand Slam event of the season. This market is somewhat different from the regular “Match Odds” market that I usually trade in-play and sometimes even before the first serve.

The tournament “Winner” markets are less volatile and the liquidity is lower compared to the in-play “Match Odds” market. However, these Grand Slam Winner trading markets are providing some great results when trading using the graphs and detecting support and resistance levels or trend lines. Please note that I usually only trade tournament “Winner” markets of Grand Slams, because for the time being these markets have enough volatility, compared to “Winner” exchanges of smaller tournaments.

OK, enough with this prelude. Here is my approach on the 2013 US Open Winner trade. The print-screen provided at the top of this article shows that current World No.1 Novak Djokovic has the first chance of winning the title, followed by his arch rival and leader of the 2013 Race Standings, Rafael Nadal. Briton, Andy Murray is third favorite to defend his US Open crown, followed by 2009 Winner, Juan Martin del Potro and 5-time Champion Roger Federer.

When aiming to bet in this type of tennis exchange markets you need to focus on the big favorites as there is most of the money exchanged. So let’s check the odds graph of the main favorites.

Novak Djokovic 2013 US Open Winner Odds

djokovic us open 2013 winner trading chart

Djokovic Us Open 2013 winner trading chart.

As the nearby graph confirms Novak Djokovic is the favorite to win the last Grand Slam event of the season. We can notice that his odds have swing around 2.50 (support level) and 3.20 (resistance level). His odds have drifted 2 or 3 times when nearing the 2.50 level confirming that the support point. Resistance point was also confirmed a few days ago when odds started to contract after reaching the 3.20 area. This graph shows that trading within support and resistance is available for the Serb’s odds. This means that you can back when price nears 3.20 and open a trade in order to green-up after odds contract or wait for the odds to reach support level and lay in order to green-up when odds drift.

Rafael Nadal 2013 US Open Winner Odds

nadal 2013 us open winner trading chart

Nadal 2013 Us Open winner trading chart.

As everyone might have expected Rafa’s odds have constantly contracted during his successful clay court comeback, drifted after his shocking Wimbledon exit and now contracted again after the perfect North American summer hard court season. The graph shows a clear trend-line, which seems to flatten out though, as it reached a possible support level at around 3.95. Many are inclined to back Rafa considering his superb form but I will not do it at the moment. Friday’s draw will surly create some volatility and a bad draw for Nadal will drift his odds. My advice if you wish to trade Rafa’s odds is not to back him at the moment. A temporary trend reversal is highly possible.

Andy Murray 2013 US Open Winner Odds

murray 2013 us open winner trading chart

Murray 2013 US Open winner trading chart.

Murray’s form has been poor all the way since his memorable Wimbledon success. This caused a major drift in his odds as the nearby graph shows. The drifting trend-line is obvious. The Briton feel behind Nadal in the ATP rankings after displaying poor performances in Montreal and Cincinnati and will be seeded 3rd for the US Open. He can’t have a good draw. This means that he will have at least 2 heavy opponents on his quest for a successful title defense, if not 3 if draw is bad. For the moment I will abstain myself from trading Murray in this market. Although the trend-line is obvious it’s nearing a possible resistance level @4.5 and trend could flatten out and even reverse.

Juan Martin del Potro 2013 US Open Winner Odds

del potro 2013 us open winner trading chart

Del Potro 2013 US Open winner trading chart.

Del Potro is a former winner at Flushing Meadows. He played superbly at the All England Club and showed that he is capable of winning a second Grand Slam. He comes in as 4th favorite for the US Open title. His odds graph shows that he can be traded within support and resistance points. I would recommend a back bet @ odds of around 15 as an opening position for this trade. You can consider closing the position, with a lay bet, anywhere around 11- 11.5, that’s above the support level as you can’t exactly anticipate when the odds will drift again. Do mind that as a 4th favorite, the liquidity is lower in Del Potro’s exchange. He will be seeded 5th for this event.

Roger Federer 2013 US Open Winner Odds

federer us open 2013 winner trading chart

Federer US Open 2013 winner trading chart.

Federer has had a poor 2013. The worst since he become a world class tennis player, but at 32 years of age, this decline was predictable. His odds graph show that his drifting trend-line took a considerable swing after his successful summer hard-court appearance in Cincinnati. His odds are now contracting and are @17 after being as high as 23. I expect this trend-line to continue and would recommend a back bet on Federer. If you go for it, it’s up to you when to green-up and close the position. I do not expect Roger to win the US Open, but he will surly have a nice run in my opinion. Even if he is seeded 7th and might get some tough resistance early in the tournament.

Conclusion
– Odds in a Grand Slam “Winner” trading market are influenced by the player’s direct performance, but also by his opponents run. For example Player’s A odds can contract if an important opponent (Player B) has a bad run, or drift if another title contender (Player C) shows some hot skills.
– Graph trading is recommended in these type of markets because trading is done long term and it’s easier to identify trends, resistance and support points.
– As in any tennis trading exchange you need liquidity in the market in order to trade properly. This is why it’s recommended to only trade the main favorites, as there is all the money.

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