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How To Detect Momentum Change During Tennis Matches

tennis trading momentum changes

Momentum changes during a tennis match.

An experienced tennis trader’s most successful odds exchanges are accomplished whenever he can detect and anticipate a momentum change. This way he will be able to predict the swing of the market, right before it happens and thus open a position before the odds start to move the other way around. Whenever a trader feels that there is not much value left in his ride he will close his position and green-up. Others prefer to ride the momentum if they are not able to anticipate it, but profit is usually smaller in this cases. In this article I am focusing on providing a few tips about how to detect a momentum change. Anticipating market swings is obviously very difficult and requires a lot of experience, but there are some basic things that you can look after even if you are a beginner at trading tennis.

Unconverted Breakpoints
This is perhaps the first hint for a momentum change that I discovered after I started tennis trading. Players usually tend to be affected if they miss break opportunities and often end up facing breakpoints and even breaks of serve in their following service game. This momentum change tip can be best applied in ATP tennis matches, in balanced encounters. Missed breakpoints have higher impact in Men’s tennis because, breakpoints are less frequent in ATP matches compared to WTA ones where women often exchange breaks several times during a set. This means that a missed break point won’t have such a big impact on a WTA player because she knows that there is a high chance of her getting a second chance right away.
In balanced ATP matches I prefer to use this momentum change tip when there is a hard fought game and server holds after saving one or several breakpoints. I usually back him as I expect him to have a strong run and force an opponent to dig deep to hold his upcoming serve. More, the player that failed to convert breakpoints can be also slightly tired after forcing on the receiving end, and he might miss a few first serves.

Trading WTA Matches
Trading Womens’ tennis matches will make it a lot easier to detect momentum changes compared to ATP ones, simply because we get a lot more swings during a balanced WTA match. The image embedded above is the odds variation graphic of the 2013 Wimbledon Ladies’ Singles Semifinal for the Sabine Lisicki vs Agnieszka Radwanska, which went to the distance and provided a lot of market swings. You can notice that the winner of the match, went 5 times above evens during the match. This means that she became an underdog 5 times before coming back and winning the game. All this is explained by the fact that female tennis players have a more vulnerable service and mental attitude compared to male players.

Fault! Correction Ball Was Good!
Whenever a player has a problem with a call and has a dispute with a referee, his performance will be altered. Most players become frustrated, lose their concentration and have a sudden drop in performance. A recent example was offered yesterday during the ATP Hamburg Final. Fognini was a set down, but a break up in the 2nd when he was given a time violation penalty while delaying play because he was waiting for his racket to be strung. The Italian went nuts after receiving the penalty and lost two service games in a row. He eventually managed to comeback at 5-5, win the 2nd set in a highly disputed tiebreak and win the Final in the deciding set.
The only player that I know that plays better after a dispute with a referee is Rafael Nadal.

Rain Delays
Play is often interrupted in tennis because of rain. Most tournaments are played on outdoor courts and even those, courts that have a retractable roof, still need a 20-40 minute break until the roof is closed. This means that players that are under performing can get their act together if a rain delay occurs. They can have muscle spasms, or simply a bad run which can be corrected by a visit to the locker room and a nice massage or mental cheer-up.

3rd Parties
A player can be easily influenced by third parties while playing a tight match. If he is in trouble,

Andy Murray picking up the feather

Andy Murray picking up the feather.

but is appreciated by the attendance, crowd will try to lift him up. This can be a nice boost for him and a swing can occur.
However, even the slightest interference can signal a momentum change. Perhaps the best example would be the feather that floored in front of Andy Murray during the 2013 Australian Open Final. It signaled the momentum shift from him to Djokovic. The Briton was one set up and dominating the match while he prepared to serve during the 2nd set tiebreaker. He missed his first serve and immediately a feather floated just in front of him. He moved to pick it up and his concentration was broken. A double fault followed and he lost the set and continued to under-perform and lost the match.

Tennis Experience
Perhaps the best factor that will help you anticipate momentum changes, in a tennis match, is experience. The more tennis matches you are watching and trading, the better you will know the players. This will help you read their reactions, gestures and it will be easier and easier to spot a momentum shift and profit from it.

I will complete this list as soon as I will discover more tips for price swings in tennis matches. If you wish to contribute to this list you can comment this article and share your experience.

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